Rumor Mill: Tysabri did not cause PML death
By Strk3 on the Board
...again, PLEASE NOTE that this is a rumor. I am not a scientist nor affiliated with any drug company. I was researching Tysabri and this PML stuff tonight and landed on the Elan/Biogen investor boards. As many know, we have had some of these investors visit the board of late with news on different things, etc. Curious, I checked out one of the sites that they frequent.
After numerous reads, I learned that the investors were "bullish" once again on the Elan stock and convinced that Biogen acted quickly but may have raised a false alarm. There are conspiracy theorists who believe Biogen did this because it still owns Avonex and would profit from a false alarm that predictably sent Elan's stock sinking to less than $8 a share down over $30 (roughly). Some believe that this was a "fortunate" side effect for some investors who hoped that one of two things would happen: 1) Elan's stock would sink low enough for it to be bought out by Biogen who would then capitalize by owning both Avonex and Tysabri outright or 2) that Tysabri would be delayed sufficiently such that Biogen's main drug, Avonex, which it owns exclusively (unlike sharing Tysabri with Elan) would get about $1 billion in revenue each year that Tysabri was held up due to the unfortunate circumstances.
Okay, background on investing conspiracies done. Heres what they're saying (PLEASE DON'T SHOOT THE MESSENGER IF THIS IS WRONG AND GIVES FALSE HOPE): Tysabri may not have been the cause of the PML.
Both patients who have been afflicted with PML had more in common than just being on Avonex and Tysabri. Both were treated with corticosteriods. In fact, the woman that died appeared to have been given pretty heavy doses and went downhill quickly. She started off with symptoms in December, was given 2 doses of steroids and then another dose in February (the month she died). The man afflicted with it was on a potent nasal steroid. The specifics of the dosage, timing as to when it was taken and relation to symptoms is unknown (at least to me). As we know, corticosteroids are immunosuppressive agents. The vast majority of those who get PML are immunosuppressed people (HIV, cancer, transplant recipients, etc.).
Look, I'm not a scientist (or an SEC investigator) but this smells fishy. And, maybe Biogen and Elan were correct in pulling this early to protect patients (or if you're an anti-corporate person who believes they did it to protect themselves from lawsuits, I won't disagree with you) but that doesn't mean hope is lost and that it was definitely Tysabri or a combo that caused the problems. Contributed to the problems? Maybe. Perhaps Tysabri or a combo therapy is contraindicated (a "no no") if one is on steroids.
The bottom line is that the people who are watching this with their wallets seem to be excited about this news. Not all are optimistic and this may just be investor positioning, etc. Watch the stocks tomorrow 3/2/05 as Biogen and Elan will both make comebacks (how much I don't know). Why these potential causes haven't been discussed in more detail by Biogen, Elan, the media or anyone else is unknown to me. Perhaps all are guarded. Perhaps the investors (and I) have misread something. But, I encourage all of you to look at the profiles of the two MSers who have been afflicted with PML and chime in with any thoughts.
It's late. I'm hopeful. And, as we all have come to learn in the last few days---especially we who are new to this disease and have just seen how a drug can break your heart----hope can be a dangerous thing. But, at least its there for now.
Maybe this will pan out more tomorrow or in the coming weeks but I am REALLY interested in this theory. As always, any comments are more than welcome. Lets keep our fingers crossed.
...again, PLEASE NOTE that this is a rumor. I am not a scientist nor affiliated with any drug company. I was researching Tysabri and this PML stuff tonight and landed on the Elan/Biogen investor boards. As many know, we have had some of these investors visit the board of late with news on different things, etc. Curious, I checked out one of the sites that they frequent.
After numerous reads, I learned that the investors were "bullish" once again on the Elan stock and convinced that Biogen acted quickly but may have raised a false alarm. There are conspiracy theorists who believe Biogen did this because it still owns Avonex and would profit from a false alarm that predictably sent Elan's stock sinking to less than $8 a share down over $30 (roughly). Some believe that this was a "fortunate" side effect for some investors who hoped that one of two things would happen: 1) Elan's stock would sink low enough for it to be bought out by Biogen who would then capitalize by owning both Avonex and Tysabri outright or 2) that Tysabri would be delayed sufficiently such that Biogen's main drug, Avonex, which it owns exclusively (unlike sharing Tysabri with Elan) would get about $1 billion in revenue each year that Tysabri was held up due to the unfortunate circumstances.
Okay, background on investing conspiracies done. Heres what they're saying (PLEASE DON'T SHOOT THE MESSENGER IF THIS IS WRONG AND GIVES FALSE HOPE): Tysabri may not have been the cause of the PML.
Both patients who have been afflicted with PML had more in common than just being on Avonex and Tysabri. Both were treated with corticosteriods. In fact, the woman that died appeared to have been given pretty heavy doses and went downhill quickly. She started off with symptoms in December, was given 2 doses of steroids and then another dose in February (the month she died). The man afflicted with it was on a potent nasal steroid. The specifics of the dosage, timing as to when it was taken and relation to symptoms is unknown (at least to me). As we know, corticosteroids are immunosuppressive agents. The vast majority of those who get PML are immunosuppressed people (HIV, cancer, transplant recipients, etc.).
Look, I'm not a scientist (or an SEC investigator) but this smells fishy. And, maybe Biogen and Elan were correct in pulling this early to protect patients (or if you're an anti-corporate person who believes they did it to protect themselves from lawsuits, I won't disagree with you) but that doesn't mean hope is lost and that it was definitely Tysabri or a combo that caused the problems. Contributed to the problems? Maybe. Perhaps Tysabri or a combo therapy is contraindicated (a "no no") if one is on steroids.
The bottom line is that the people who are watching this with their wallets seem to be excited about this news. Not all are optimistic and this may just be investor positioning, etc. Watch the stocks tomorrow 3/2/05 as Biogen and Elan will both make comebacks (how much I don't know). Why these potential causes haven't been discussed in more detail by Biogen, Elan, the media or anyone else is unknown to me. Perhaps all are guarded. Perhaps the investors (and I) have misread something. But, I encourage all of you to look at the profiles of the two MSers who have been afflicted with PML and chime in with any thoughts.
It's late. I'm hopeful. And, as we all have come to learn in the last few days---especially we who are new to this disease and have just seen how a drug can break your heart----hope can be a dangerous thing. But, at least its there for now.
Maybe this will pan out more tomorrow or in the coming weeks but I am REALLY interested in this theory. As always, any comments are more than welcome. Lets keep our fingers crossed.
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